Second-Order Thinking Principles

This is an except from Mind Macros 05.

“Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second-and third-order effects can unleash disaster.” — From The Great Mental Models by Shane Parrish.

First-order thinking involves finding a solution to an immediate problem without considering the implications.

Due to time constraints, we order takeout one evening to save ourselves the chore of cooking. We enjoy the meal without feeling guilty or considering the consequences of the decision.

Second-order thinking involves predicting what is likely to happen due to an initial action. We imagine the second and third-order consequences that may occur as a result of ordering the takeout.

Each time we eat a big meal this late, we experience a night of restless sleep, affecting our performance the next day. We would also save money by not ordering takeout, especially when the fridge is full of fresh food. Using that money to pay for the rising rent could save a few hours of extra work this week. Those three hours might allow us to finish early on Friday and spend the evening with friends across town.

If you reason through the second and third-order effects and don’t see any negative consequences, then enjoy the takeout without remorse. The goal isn’t to eliminate spontaneity but to avoid making unwise decisions.

To contemplate the potential consequences of our actions, Parrish recommends asking, “And then what?” This process ensures that our decision-making aligns with our long-term vision.